Lesson Summary for the ValhallaFutures Trading Course
Will Scheier, author and instructor
The most important Support-Resistance number is identified at the opening for the remainder of the day. From the Opening Range, there are a limited number of setups that can trigger a trade almost from within the first few minutes of the day. These quick entry triggers can often be a jump start for capturing an early runaway trend that might otherwise be totally unexpected. The setups are very precise and do not appear in other literature on trade entries.
There is a Support-Resistance Grid that can be overlaid to the entire day’s action. It provides key price levels that market action will face as the day proceeds. The methods to derive these numbers are original, include both static and dynamic support, and do not rely heavily on traditional Floor Traders Pivots, Fibonacci or Market Profile that many readily available trading books talk about. The author has found those methods less reliable than those of the Pivot / Exhaustion Grid ™ ©.
With a support-resistance grid in place, three specific trend models can be identified, each replete with their own trade entry setups. The three main Day Models are reviewed and several trade setups that are associated with each are demonstrated. More than three dozen different trade entry setups have been identified for these models by the course author.
Time-of-Day, or Static Cycles, can mean the difference between trend continuation and reversal. In this lesson, an understanding between these time frames and the Day Model underway can mean the difference between successfully identifying the day's trend, or fighting it with losing entries the rest of the day.
The author has been studying and testing various momentum indicators for the better of 15 years. TTI™©, or True Trend Indicator, is the culmination of much research and testing. It avoids the mistake many momentum indicators suffer from which use the same underlying data from their bar charts, volume and traditional momentum indicators like stochastics, CCI, MACD, etc. This momentum indicator focuses on market leadership at its tell-tale leading edge, and is a highly accurate barometer of an impending reversal or trend continuance.
Much has been written about the Elliott Wave method as a technical trend model. The author, however, has not found this method of practical use in the smaller time frames in which the index day trader must operate. Instead, Will has devised another, original technique of wave analysis, the Serial Sequent Wave Method ™ ©. Unlike the better known Elliot models, this method does not have alternative counts that disguise and confuse the current position of the trend model, but instead, are precise and predictive to their outcomes. The methodology provides effective, real-time decision support for the identity of both intraday trend reversals and those occuring in the daily bars.(trademark ™ valhallafutures.com, copyright © valhallafutures.com).
Explosive impulse moves can be jarring and occur unexpectedly during the day. A day's profits can be destroyed by such sudden, violent moves, and a great deal of angst and frustration can occur when they are missed by the trader who cannot see them coming as potential entries. Using Serial Sequent Wave Methodology, the points at which these explosions are most likely to occur can often be identified to the very price tick from which they start. In this way, not only are trend reversals identified using this methodology, but trend extension and impulse volatility can often be captured at specifically identified trade entry points, called Inflections.
The MidDay Time Period is often choppy and in congestion. Some avoid it altogether. But larger patterns often form out of this chaos that are, in fact, repetitive and rich with trade opportunity, if only they can be assessed correctly.
Within these larger patterns, are smaller entry triggers that often appear just prior to the breakout of an impending trend. Some of these triggers we call Fail Triggers. These appear in disguise, and tend to hook traders in the wrong direction, just before the real trend starts.
Some of these patterns, on the other hand, trigger legitimate breakouts, and leave tell-tale signposts before triggering. These, we call Pre-Breakout Pause patterns, and are discussed in detail with many examples.
Although some consider scalping as an attractive method of day trading, capturing the intraday trend swings can be much more profitable. An Event Concept is a special set of separate technical items that occur simultaneously in time, and signal the probable end of one intraday trend and the beginning of another.
These Event Concepts put all the technical minutia together, and are comprised of consistent Time-of-Day cycles, original, brand-name divergence models, and special Support-Resistance targets. Along with the Serial Sequent Wave Method®, Technical Event Concepts acquire end-of-trend signals. Once understood, the student can often identify the exact turning points of the major intraday trends at the right edge of the video screen where they are occurring, in time enough to enter trades near where they begin.
Trade management requires a plan, and a plan requires there to be a short list of trade setups a trader can rely on appearing each day at the right edge of the video screen. Specific trade management rules must be reduced to mechanical rules for these setups that include the flexibility of applying position runners that can capture the length of the trend excursion. Without such a rule based plan, the trader cannot expect to survive the emotional cross currents that accompany a day's natural volatility in the mini stock indices.
Many books have been written about the psychology of trading. The author of this course has read most of the better known ones, and many of the more obscure ones. These examinations may be interesting, but affect little in the way of personal improvement in handling the emotional conflicts in real time trading. TRUE SELF, an original work by Will Scheier and available in Kindle at Amazon.com, refutes the traditional axis of Fear and Greed as the main focus of trading errors. By examining the real reasons traders tend to lose, the author's intent is to help create a mental framework for the trader to understand, accept and benefit from the internal conflicts that arise when trading.
FUTURES AND FOREX TRADING CONTAINS SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT FOR EVERY INVESTOR. AN INVESTOR COULD POTENTIALLY LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THE INITIAL INVESTMENT. RISK CAPITAL IS MONEY THAT CAN BE LOST WITHOUT JEOPARDIZING ONESí FINANCIAL SECURITY OR LIFE STYLE. ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE USED FOR TRADING AND ONLY THOSE WITH SUFFICIENT RISK CAPITAL SHOULD CONSIDER TRADING. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.